Over 80,000 Israelis Near Lebanese Border Are Refugees In Their Own Country

Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hangebi has said that Israel may have to go to war against Hezbollah, as he now fears a potential future attack by the Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran that would be worse than Oct. 7. “We can no longer accept (Hezbollah’s elite) Radwan force sitting on the border,” he said recently.

Commentary on his words in The New Arab concluded, “The Israelis are anticipating within the next six weeks to two months that if the diplomatic track isn’t working, they’re going to have to opt for some kind of military solution.”

On Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant estimated that over 80,000 Israeli citizens are still displaced from their homes, after border regions had to be evacuated en masse as a result of Hezbollah attacks, which have been daily since Oct.7.

Via Reuters

The two sides have been engaged in a running tit-for-tat, but which has yet to spiral into full blown war:

“Over 80,000 citizens have been displaced, living as refugees in their own country… We will bring back the residents of the north to their homes in the border after full security will be restored,” Gallant told a  news briefing.

The defense chief further said that literally “hundreds” of Hezbollah attacks had been conducted, resulting in five Israeli civilians killed. Likely many more IDF troops have been killed in these cross-border attacks too. Israel has responded by regularly bombing various locations across south Lebanon, sometimes dropping bombs and mortars on residential areas and civilian homes, resulting in Lebanese killed and wounded.

Israel has also launched attacks on Hezbollah ally Syria, including several attacks and missiles launched on sites in Damascus and in the south in the last 24 hours. Israel frequently attacks Syria from Lebanese airspace, as Lebanon doesn’t have an air force to speak of.

Hezbollah remains Israel’s most formidable foe, which has resulted in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issuing severe warnings of late. “If Hezbollah decides to open an all-out war, then with its own hands it will turn Beirut and southern Lebanon, which are not far from here, into Gaza and Khan Younis,” he said earlier this month while addressing IDF troops at base near the Lebanese border. 

For now, it’s unlikely that Hezbollah will withdraw from the border anytime soon, and tens of thousands of Israelis won’t be able to return to their homes, as the following analysis also suggests:

Joshua Landis, Director of the Centre of Middle East Studies and the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Persian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, doubts Hezbollah will withdraw from the border.

The group, and the broader Iran-backed regional ‘Resistance Front’, also dubbed the ‘Axis of Resistance’, against Israel, has been given “new relevance and popularity” due to the Gaza war.

“With Syria in pieces, Lebanon facing both political and economic crisis, and Hezbollah’s reputation in the Sunni world badly damaged by its engagement on the side of Assad in the Syrian Civil War, the Resistance Front’s reputation was in below zero,” Landis told The New Arab.

“Now that the Arab world realizes the Palestinian issue is not going away, resistance is again on everyone’s lips,” he said. “Hezbollah will not want to appear cowed by Israel, nor will Iran.”

Hezbollah published a video of targeting a number of sites belonging to the Israeli army on the Lebanese border. pic.twitter.com/cfDvPDO2mu

— War Intel (@warintel4u) December 18, 2023

The consensus among regional analysts is that Hezbollah is far superior to Hamas’ capability in terms of numbers of fighters, missiles, and weaponry such as laser-guided anti-tank missiles. An all-out war scenario would be severe, but likely Lebanon would be devastated and come under Israeli bombs. For now it seems, neither side wants this.