Small Business Optimism Dips In September But Labor Market Signals All Improved

Amid a dearth of macro data due to the shutdowns, this month’s Small Business Optimism survey suddenly becomes noteworthy with the headline sentiment index dipping in September to a three-month low (down 2 pts to 98.8)on less optimism about the economic outlook and greater concern about excess inventory.

Source: Bloomberg

Five of the 10 components that make up the gauge decreased, while three were unchanged.

Owners grew more anxious about inflation, with 14% of owners reporting that rising costs were their biggest problem in operating their business, up 3 points from August.

A net 31% plan to raise prices in the next three months, up 5 points and the largest share since June.

“While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges,” Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist, said in a statement.

But while uncertainty was elevated (the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years)…

Source: Bloomberg

…the employment components showed improvement – positive employment change, hiring plans continuing to increase, compensation for labor higher.

Hiring plans are at their highest level since January.

So to summarize the somewhat strange NFIB data – Earnings expectations are rising as are hiring intentions but the headline confidence number is lower?

Finally, NFIB notes that whatever impact the government shutdown has on small businesses, it will show up in the October survey. Questionnaires were mailed out on October 1.