Tariff-ic! Core Consumer Price Inflation Cooler Than Expected In June

Will the dreaded tariff-flation show up this time? Or will the excuse factory be required to spin the Trump-policy-driven price hike expectations as coming next time?

Expectations were for a modest acceleration in prices in June and headline Consumer Prices did just that rising 0.3% MoM (as expected) and +2.7% YoY (up from +2.4% prior and hotter than the +2.6% YoY expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

The MoM acceleration was driven by a flip from deflation to inflation for Energy prices…

Source: Bloomberg

New and Used Car prices are dropping!!! That’s not supposed to happen…

Source: Bloomberg

The headline CPI YoY is the hottest since February but Core CPI printed cooler than expected (+0.1% MoM vs +0.2% MoM exp) with the YoY rise higher at +2.9% (as expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core Goods prices are accelerating on a YoY basis…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 5th monthly ‘miss’ for Core CPI in a row – the sky is falling analyst crowd continues to be wrong…

Source: Bloomberg

SuperCore CPI (Services ex-shelter) rose 0.36% MoM, lifting prices 3.34% YoY – highest since feb but well off the YTD highs

Source: Bloomberg

Medical Care Services costsare also starting to accelerate (not exactly tariff-driven)…

Source: Bloomberg

On a 3m- and 6m- annualized basis, there are no signs of the tariff-driven price hikes as yet…

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly the damning evidence of terrifying tariff-flation that the establishment wants us to believe is coming…

No inflationary pass throughs. But they will absolutely, definitely show up next month, or maybe the month after, but certainly before 2030.
Because… “The lack of tariff inflation remains transitory” https://t.co/pbD9Cc3owN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 15, 2025

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