Canadian Election: Poilievre Odds Fall After Early Gains Despite ‘Larger Than Expected’ Conservative Turnout

Update (2127ET):After some momentary excitement based on a reported ‘larger than expected’ turnout at Canadian polls, betting market odds for conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre have fallen back to the low 20% range.

Stay tuned for more…

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With Canada’s Atlantic polls now having closed in what will be a deeply consequential election, odds for conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre have begun spikingafter conservative turnout was reportedly “larger than expected,” according to betting market Kalshi.

Earlier, Polymarket odds were as high as 48% for Poilievre –dropping to a 30% chance as of this writing – but nevertheless in sharp contrast to the 20% odds he’s been hovering around all week.

Only to reverse lower (as seen on this 6h chart)…

You can track the odds in realtime below:

We’re guessing Carney takes it, but there was still money to be made for those who partake…

Poilievre may be worth a punt at 20% pic.twitter.com/9DD6mPQWvF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2025

Stay tuned for updates…