US Intelligence Is ‘Convinced’ Major Iranian Response Against Israel Imminent

US intelligence is ‘convinced’ that Iran is readying a retaliation response against Israel for the Monday attack on the Iranian embassy complex in Syria, US officials have told CBS News, and that an attack could be imminent.

The officials say that the US “has picked up intelligence that Iran is planning a retaliatory attack that would include a swarm of Shaheed loitering drones and cruise missiles. Officials say the timing and target are unknown, but a proportional response to the Damascus attack would be to hit an Israeli diplomatic facility.”

As for possible timing they believe it will come between now and the end of Ramadan next week. Israel has already issued firm warnings that any direct attack from Iranian soil will be met with a “stronger” response, taking the conflict to the next level.

AFP

CBS reports further that “A public funeral was held in Tehran on Friday for the seven IRGC members killed in the suspected Israeli strike in Damascus, including two generals.”

One hawkish analyst from the Middle East Institute, Jason Brodsky, has noted on Friday:

There are reports Iran’s regime may be eyeing hitting an Israel diplomatic compound in a third country via drones & missiles. Israel maintains embassies in Bahrain; UAE; Jordan; Egypt; Azerbaijan; & Turkey. I would keep an eye on Jordan.

This is a scenario that Iranian and regional leaders might deem ‘proportionate’. The idea of a sovereign state intentionally attacking another country’s embassy or consulate was pretty much unheard of prior to Israel’s Monday attack.

Israel, however, has tried claim to the international community – which by and large condemned attacking embassies – that what was actually destroyed was a military building used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

A handful of publications and pundits have pointed out that the Israeli attack, which killed eleven and took out a top IRGC Quds general, is in fact a declaration of war. 

For example, Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, immediately sought to underscore that the strikes which flattened a consulate next to the main embassy building “is viewed by some in Iran as a declaration of war by Israel against Iran.” 

Israel heading into ‘unprecedented war,’ former IDF official says

The people who lead us today are acting in an unrealistic and irrational way and bring risk and disaster to the countryhttps://t.co/ZhggPmvDrI

— Joshua Landis (@joshua_landis) April 4, 2024

He wrote further that “It represents a shift from previous engagements, directly hitting Iranian soil represented by its consulate in Syria—as opposed to targeting IRGC officers in Syrian sites.”

Currently, Israel is bracing for an inevitable response, and is reportedly calling up extra reserve forces. Hezbollah could also open up a bigger war front:

The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement said on Friday that Iran would inevitably retaliate after a strike — widely blamed on Israel — destroyed its consulate in Damascus this week, killing two generals.
“Be certain that Iran’s response to the targeting of its Damascus consulate is inevitable,” Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised speech marking Quds (Jerusalem) Day — an annual day of pro-Palestinian rallies held by Iran and its allies.

At least so far, the daily tit-for-tat fighting along Israel’s northern border has remained contained, but perhaps just barely. Israeli leaders have warned that all of Lebanon could be bombed back to the ‘stone age’ if Hezbollah starts a full war.