Oil & Gold Soar On Week, But ‘Good Data’ Wrecks Rate-Cut Hopes, Slamming Stocks & Bonds

It was a ‘good’ week for macro data…

Source: Bloomberg

…but ‘soft’ survey data remains mired in depression as the ‘aggregate’ hard data holds strong…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, good news is bad news for the doves and rate-cut expectations for 2024 are down (particularly after today’s big payrolls headline beat) well below three cuts expected by the ‘median’ Fed dot…

Source: Bloomberg

…and the odds of a cut in June have tumbled back to a coin-toss…

Source: Bloomberg

And to rub salt in the wounds of the doves, inflation expectations are back on the rise bigly…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks initially down-pumped on the hjobs data (good is bad) then went into their usual BTFD insanity, ramping Nasdaq to unchanged vs Wenesday’s close (erasing yesterday’s losses). However, within minutes of that FedSpeak spoiled the party again:

1310ET *FED’S BOWMAN: INFLATION PROGRESS HAS STALLED, WON’T BE COMFORTABLE CUTTING UNTIL DISINFLATION RETURNS

And stocks started back lower…

On the week, all the majors were red with Small Caps and The Dow the worst performers. This was the S&P 500’s worst week since the first week of the year…

MAG7 stocks managed to eke out very modest gains as a basket on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks soared this week (to a record high) – the only sector to end green – while Healthcare and Real Estate lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX saw its biggest weekly surge since August 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were also ugly on the week, led by the long-end…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield pushed up to 2024 YTD highs and closed at its highest yield since November…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended a choppy week modestly lower after spiking initially today into the green…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, since The BoJ unleashed chaos in JPY-land, USDJPY has gone too sleep. @Bespoke notes that this is the smallest 13-day range for USDJPY since 1980…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold had another huge week, rallying to a new record high above $2330 (spot). Gold is up 9 of the last 10 days and 6 of the last 7 weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold is screaming that something bad is coming (inferring negative real yields – something we have only seen deep in crises)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices also surged, with Brent topping $90 and WTI topping $87.50 this week, as gepolitical tensions turned the rhetoric up to ’11’…

Source: Bloomberg

And strength in oil meant gasoline and pump prices rose too…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was down on the week, but found support at $65,000 and bounced back amid a re-ignition of net ETF inflows…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum underperformed on the week, breaking down to its weakest against bitcoin since May 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, with all the macro and geopolitical headlines, everyone seems to have forgotten about the whole premise for this rally was AI and wunderstock NVDA which is down 11% from its record highs one-month ago…

Source: Bloomberg

History rhymes…