Housing Starts And Permits Surged In February (Despite Plunging Rate-Cut Odds)

Housing Starts and Permits rebounded firmly in February from an ugly January.

Starts soared 10.7% MoM (+8.2% exp) recovering some of the 12.3% MoM decline in January and Permits jumped 1.9% (+0.5% exp) from the upwardly revised -0.3% MoM decline in January…

Source: Bloomberg

That was the biggest monthly jump in Starts since May and biggest permits rise since August.

With weather being blamed for January’s decline, February seems like a return to post-COVID lower norms…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, rental unit housing permits outpaced single-family units

Single-Family: up 1.0% to 1.031MM from 1.021MM

Rentals: up 2.4% to 429K from a four year low of 419K

On the Housing Starts side, single-family units rose more (but both saw signifiant rises):

Single-Family: up 11.6% to 1.129MM, highest since April 2022, from 1.012MM

Rentals: up 8.6% to 377K from 347K

All good news for the meager supply out there. The question is – with rate-cut odds plummeting, has homebuilder confidence, which recently spiked back above 50, got too far over their skis on expectations of The Fed saving the day.

If they build it, will homebuyers come?