WTF Is Going On With The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Data?

After rebounding strongly from November to January, US Consumer Confidence tumbled in February, according to the latest survey from The Conference Board, beating expectations across the board.

Consumer confidence fell to 106.7 (estimate 115.0) in February from revised 110.9 in January

Present situation fell to 147.2 from revised 154.9 in January

Expectations index fell to 79.8 from revised 81.5 in January

Source: Bloomberg

While that decline on the chart does not look like much, it is dramatic relative to expectations and pre-revision levels. A six-sigma miss…

Source: Bloomberg

But, for the fourth straight month, The Conference Board revised its consumer confidence data significantly lower. In fact January’s was the biggest downward revision since Feb 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

So January’s spike above July’s revised highs which everyone shot their load of exuberance over… is gonzo!!

Source: Bloomberg

For context, that is 11.1 pts of ‘confidence’ erased by ‘adjustments/revisions’ in four months – by far the largest downward shift in the survey’s history…

Source: Bloomberg

Which brings up the same question we had last month?

How do you revise consumer confidence down? Do you ask them again and they tell you, “You know what, I wasn’t feeling it as much as I thought I was”

— Zebra Cat (@ZebraCat20) November 28, 2023

The Conference Board’s indicator inflation expectations tumbled further to +5.2% – still notably high but trend in the right direction…

Source: Bloomberg

The labor market indicators trended notably stronger again in February?

Source: Bloomberg

Bidenomics: where everything is revised lower a month after nobody remembers.