US Home Prices Rose For 11th Straight Month In December, But…

Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose for the 11th straight month in December (the latest data released by S&P Global Case-Shiller today), up 0.21% MoM (in line with the 0.20% MoM expected and 0.24% prior).

Source: Bloomberg

That pushed the YoY price up to +6.13% (in line with the +6.03% exp).

“While we are not experiencing the double-digit gains seen in the previous two years, above-trend growth should be well received considering the rising costs of financing home mortgages,” according to Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Miami, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles saw MoM gains in their city’s prices, while the rest of the 17 majors saw declines MoM, but on a YoY basis, there was no city with lower prices for the first time since Nov 2022. While San Diego and Los Angeles are leading the price gains on a YoY basis, we note that Detroit (yes, Detroit) is seeing the 3rd fastest home price growth (+8.32% YoY)…

But, judging by the resumption of the rise of mortgage rates since the Case-Shiller data was created, we would expect prices to also resume their decline in the short-term…

Source: Bloomberg

Are prices set to shrink again (as the lag on Case-Shiller data and human’s response to rates) before re-accelerating later this year?