Initial Jobless Claims Plunge Near Record Lows… Fed Questions Data’s Accuracy

As mass corporate layoffs continue to mount, why should we be shocked that expectations were for a very small rise in initial jobless claims (from 213k to 216k) last week.

Source: Layoffs.fyi

What does that look like – in the real world labor market – in 2024…

1. Twitch: 35% of workforce
2. Roomba: 31% of workforce
3. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
4. LA Times: 20% of workforce
5. Spotify: 17% of workforce
6. Levi’s: 15% of workforce
7. Xerox: 15% of workforce
8. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
9. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
10. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
11. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
12: Snap: 10% of workforce
13. eBay: 9% of workforce
14. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
15. Paypal: 7% of workforce
16. Okta: 7% of workforce
17. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
18. Docusign: 6% of workforce
19: CISCO: 5% of workforce
20. UPS: 2% of workforce
21. Nike: 2% of workforce
22. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
23. Paramount: 3% of workforce
24. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
25. Pixar: 1,300 employees

And here’s the government-supplied statistics…

Instead of rising, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time, tumbled from 213k to 201k, practically the lowest levels in this cycle. That is the third lowest initial jobless claims since the start of 2023, according to the Biden admin…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, continuing claims also declined from 1.889mm Americans to 1.862mm…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, if you doubt the accuracy of the Biden admin’s data, here’s what The FOMC Minutes said yesterday:

“While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.”

Even they aren’t buying it.

Can’t imagine why they would doubt this?

…and California was ‘estimated’.