Small Caps ‘Squeeze’ To Pre-CPI Highs On Dismal Data; Bonds, Oil, & Gold All Bounce

A Japanese recession (and new equity market highs) and a UK recession (and rising stock market) and broadly crap US macro (and stocks soar) – we’re sensing a pattern.

‘Good’ jobless claims data was not enough to deter the momo-muppets from the ‘bad’ retail sales data, and ‘ugly’ manufacturing print that all provided just the ammunition for bulls to hope for The Fed to rescue them sooner rather than later (and with more).

March remains off the table but May is back up to a 33% chance of a cut and 2024 now back up to 4 rate-cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps were up 2.5% today (as the Nasdaq lagged) pushing it well above pre-CPI levels. The Dow managed to get back to even from CPI…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps outperformed for the second day in a row, erasing all the relative gains of Nasdaq post-CPI…

Source: Bloomberg

…thanks to yet more short-squeezing…

Source: Bloomberg

MAG7 stocks went nowhere for a second day…

Source: Bloomberg

But, ARM kept on keeping on…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were bid again today (on the bad news) with yields down 2-3bps across the curve (with the belly a modest outperformer). The 30Y almost got back to unch from pre-CPI today before leaking back higher in yield…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dumped today, almost erasing all of the CPI spike….

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied up near $53k intraday but faded back to hold around $52k…

Source: Bloomberg

As ETF net inflows continued to grow (though did slow yesterday)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, Ethereum did extend its gains on more chatter about an ETH ETF…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold prices broke back above $2000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rebounded strongly, erasing all of yesterday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Nasdaq is at its weakest relative to Small Caps since early Jan…

Source: Bloomberg

Double-top anyone?

Time for a reality check?

Source: Bloomberg

Oh, and this is nothing…

Source: Bloomberg
 

RSI 99! WTF!