WTI Drops After Huge Crude Build, US Production Back At Record Highs

Oil prices extended gains overnight after API reported big product draws (which offset a large crude build) and on geopolitical concerns rising once more after Israel launched an extensive wave of attacks in Lebanon, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari said on social media Wednesday.

Additionally, OPEC’s top official said Tuesday that global oil demand is set to expand strongly, while a monthly outlook from the group revealed limited compliance with the members’ latest round of supply cuts.

“Oil has weathered the financial storm decisively, but copious upside potential might be too much of an ask,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM

Will the official data confirm API’s major draws and builds?

API

Crude +8.5mm (+2.8mm exp)

Cushing +512k

Gasoline -7.2mm (-1.0mm exp) – biggest draw since Sept 2021

Distillates -4.0mm (-2.2mm exp) – biggest draw since May 2023

DOE

Crude +12mm (+2.8mm exp)

Cushing +720k

Gasoline -3.7mm (-1.0mm exp)

Distillates -1.9mm (-2.2mm exp)

The official data more than confirm the huge crude inventory build (over 12mm barrels) but the product draws were smaller than API reported. Cushing saw a rise in stocks for the first tin 6 weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

The Biden administration added 746k barrels to the SPR last week…

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production was flat at record highs 13.3mm b/d…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $78.25 ahead of the print (off the highs of the day) and extended the decline after…

WTI was supported technically by a break above its 100DMA and 200DMA…

All of which means Messers Biden and Powell have a problem…

Source: Bloomberg

As rising crude and surging wholesale gasoline prices mean pump prices are due for a big jump.

Which can’t but make you wonder why all of a sudden the DOE ‘adjustment factor surges back to a big positive…

Is every government-provided data-set now, ‘adjusted for electioneering’?