Oil Dumps After Another Headline Praising “Positive Hamas Response” To Israel Truce Negotiations

It’s been a few days since we had a breaking headline out of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks, and so Qatari decided to break the silence with another market test:

*HAMAS RESPONSE IN NEGOTIATIONS IS `POSITIVE:’ AL THANI

…which instantly led to another algo-driven dump in oil, just like last week when Al Jazeera reported, briefly, that Hamas had a ‘positive response’ to the Israeli truce terms… before deleting the tweet.

“Hamas says they have dealth with the proposal in a positive spirit to ensure a comprehensive ceasefire, end the aggression, lift the siege and exchange prisoners,” according to news wires.

Additionally there’s ‘hope’ on the northern border as well, at a moment Israel and Hezbollah’s daily tit-for-tat strikes continue spiraling: 

US and four European allies hope to announce in the next few weeks a series of commitments made by Israel and Hezbollah to diffuse tensions and restore calm to the Israel-Lebanon border, according to two Israeli officials and a source cited by Axios.

The dump quickly reversed, however, when algos read the rest of the statement, namely that not even Al Thani could give details on the framework of the deal at the time.

Still, with the oil shorting CTA army reactivated (despite being near 100% net short oil, CTAs somehow always find some more capacity to short oil some more), and even though the latest headline was not actual news, oil is now down 50 cents and sliding because apparently peace is about to break out in the Middle East any second.

And now, very quickly almost back to unchanged on the top side…

Meanwhile, as reported previously, ceasefire negotiation efforts have involved not only Qatar but Egypt too, with the latest days of most intense talks happening in Paris, involving CIA Director William Burns. Israel is coming under increased pressure to wrap up a deal, but which has brought deep splits in the governing coalition to the forefront. Per Israeli media on Tuesday:

Opposition leader Yair Lapid on Monday warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against continuing to give power to National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, reiterating his offer to enter the government to replace the ultranationalist, in order to secure backing for a deal to free hostages still captive in Gaza.

Lapid’s comments came as Netanyahu’s political allies continued to aim fire at US President Joe Biden’s administration, risking a downturn in ties already frayed by ongoing fighting in Gaza, with increasing pressure by Washington to wrap up the Gaza offensive after nearly four months.

“The proposed three-part deal, formulated during international intelligence chief meetings in Paris, includes a notable provision—Hamas’s demand for the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners for each female Israeli soldier set free,” Israeli media sources have noted of the ongoing talks.

Israel has sought the release of all prisoners held in Gaza by the end of a multi-phased plan, which could see a 2-month “pause” in fighting – though Netanyahu has still consistently expressed the goal of seeing Hamas totally eradicated.