In U-Turn, Orban Backs Sweden’s NATO Bid After ‘Overplaying Hand’ With Exasperated Allies

“I reaffirmed that the Hungarian government supports the NATO-membership of Sweden,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says he assured NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in a phone call Wednesday. Stoltenberg responded with his own announcement of the “good” phone call, confirming that Orban clearly supported Sweden’s NATO membership. “I look forward to the ratification as soon as parliament reconvenes,” Stoltenberg said on X. It’s being hailed as a major and significant U-turn as Orban says he’ll now urge parliament to back Sweden’s NATO bid.

The day prior, following nearly two years of delays, Turkey’s parliament finally agreed to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership bid, clearing the biggest remaining hurdle to expanding the Western military alliance following the Ukraine war. But Orban also did something unexpected which has yet again exasperated allies.

Image source: European Parliament

On Tuesday he issued a last-minute invitation for Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to come to Hungary for talks on the NATO accession process, which is widely being viewed as an attempt at saving face and hanging on to what dwindled leverage he has left. One senior European diplomat has summarized the surprise and anger among allies in describing “Orbán offered ‘negotiation’ while Hungary never raised objections during the accession talks is outrageous.”

Another European diplomat was cite in The Guardian as saying “The recent moves sent shock waves throughout the alliance, and a great dose of disappointment is there. After all, they had all the time in the world to consult with Sweden before.”

Hungary has been under consistent and growing pressure to ratify, perhaps even more so that Turkey. Lately it was the UK and Germany piling on the pressure. Just as the Turkey announcement hit Tuesday, Germany’s Foreign Office threw down the gauntlet for Budapest in this very public challenge…

“Türkiye’s parliament has taken an important step today, paving the way for Sweden’s accession to NATO. Sweden will make NATO stronger,” the statement posted to X said. “It is now high time for Hungary to conclude the remaining steps so that we can welcome our Swedish friends to the Alliance.”

Bloomberg has observed Wednesday that Orban is essentially folding after overplaying his hand:

“This is definitely a sharp turn and one that aims to prepare Hungary’s ratification of Sweden’s bid,” Agoston Samuel Mraz, the head of Nezopont, a policy think-tank that advises Orban’s government, said about the invitation.

While Kristersson has yet to comment on how he intends to respond to the invitation, Orban’s suggestion in a post on X that he wanted to “negotiate” Sweden’s accession was cold-shouldered by Stockholm. Foreign minister Tobias Billstrom, speaking to reporters on Tuesday, said there is “no reason to negotiate” with Budapest.

…Inviting Sweden’s premier now, unprompted, is a sign that Orban is looking for a way out of a bind. “The Swedish premier needs to just come here and have a meeting” to open the way for Hungary’s ratification, the political analyst Mraz said. “If he doesn’t, then that’s a risk he’s taking.”

A number of additional controversial moves by Orban have been met with angry rebuke from other EU and NATO members in recent weeks, including the Hungarian leader blocking €50 billion ($54.4 billion) aid package for Ukraine last month. Oban is still facing immense pressure to cease the obstructionism.

Hungary’s parliament is currently on a winter recess, and is not expected to reconvene until Feb.26 – and likely by then there will be clear answers as to how all of this unfolds, or rather with Hungary folding.