Futures Flat After Back-To-Back Records After China Unveils Massive Market Bailout

S&P futures are flat after back-to-back record closing highs for the S&P 500 index, with Europe mixed and Asia higher after a Bloomberg report indicated that China was “mulling” a 2 trillion yuan market rescue package to contain the relentless rout hammering Chinese stocks. As of 8:05am, S&P futures were up 0.1% despite a barrage of disappointing earnings releases from the likes of DR Horton, General Electric, and 3M. Nasdaq futures, as usual, gained more and were last trading up 0.3%. The Bloomberg dollar index was flat, erasing an earlier loss while the yen reversed an earlier gain following hawkish comments from BOJ head Ueda. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.5%, with Brent trading just under $80/barrel.

In premarket trading,United Airlines jumped trading on the back of forecast-beating earnings. General Electric dropped after predicting profit that undershot estimates. 3M also also slumped 7% after the manufacturing giant forecast 2024 profits and sales growth below Wall Street expectations. US-listed Chinese shares also gained in premarket trading after Bloomberg News reported Beijing is considering a package of measures to stabilize the falling stock market (Alibaba (BABA) +2.4%, Nio (NIO) +3.7%, Li Auto (LI) +4.2%). The Hang Seng Index jumped 2.6%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Coinbase falls 4.5% after JPMorgan issued a downgrade, saying enthusiasm surrounding cryptocurrency ETFs has the potential to deflate further.
D.R. Horton drops 4.9% after the homebuilder posted first-quarter earnings per share that missed analyst estimates.
Enphase Energy (ENPH) and Sunnova Energy (NOVA) are up at least 4% as Truist raised its recommendation on both to buy, saying the pair will be among the biggest beneficiaries of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
General Electric drops 3.7% after the company predicts profit this quarter will fall short of Wall Street’s estimates.
Rumble (RUM) climbs 6.1%, set to extend gains after jumping 36% on Monday following the announcement of a partnership with Barstool Sports for advertising and cloud services.
Sirius XM declines 1.5% after the satellite radio company received a downgrade from Wells Fargo, which said the merger with Liberty SiriusXM “clouds the valuation.”
United Airlines jumps 6.4% after providing a 2024 profit outlook range with a midpoint that’s higher than analysts expected.
Verizon Communications climbs 4.4% after the company gained retail mobile-phone customers in the fourth quarter.
Zuora (ZUO) rises 2.9% after the cloud billing technology company received an upgrade to buy at Goldman Sachs on its improving risk-reward.

More earnings reports are due later in the day, with Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble Co. scheduled to report. Stock markets have broadly shrugged off the Federal Reserve’s warnings that interest-rate cuts are some way off. Instead they have cheered the economy’s resilience even after the most aggressive policy-tightening cycle in decades.  

“There’s been no sign so far of a US recession, that’s why the fourth-quarter earnings season is so important,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “Investors will want to see what companies’ guidance is for 2024 on consumer demand and profit margins.”

Besides earnings and economic data, central banks are also in focus this week. While the Bank of Japan held rates steady, Governor Kazuo Ueda said the certainty of achieving its projections has continued to gradually increase. That language supports the prevailing view among economists that the BOJ will raise rates at some point in the first part of this year. Swaps see a 45% probability of a rate hike by the April meeting, with the likelihood rising to 100% by the July gathering. His comments send the USDJPY down to a low of 146.99 before the entire move was promptly reversed as nobody believes anything the BOJ claims.

Investor attention now shifts to the European Central Bank’s Thursday meeting and whether officials may indicate a start to policy easing.

European stocks failed to capitalize on a positive handover from Asia, where shares rose on reports of a fresh market rescue package from Beijing. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.3%, as a rally for miners failed to offset weakness in sectors including health care and tech, with investors awaiting clues on interest rates from the European Central Bank. Ericsson AB fell after the Swedish company warned that its market outside of China will continue to decline in 2024. Swatch Group AG also slipped after failing to hit the sales record predicted by management. Here are the most notable European movers:

Shares in HelloFresh jump as much as 8.7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight, saying the risk-reward profile “is now skewed to the upside.”
Shares in Nordex rise as much as 5.8% after Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on the wind turbine producer to buy from neutral, saying its underperformance compared with peers including Vestas and Siemens is unjustified.
Shares in Crest Nicholson rise as much as 2.3% after reporting 2023 results. Drops in revenue and profit were as expected following the housebuilder’s trading update last week, analysts said, turning their focus to news that Martyn Clark is joining as CEO.
Shares in Encavis slump as much as 5.7% after the renewable power company was downgraded to sell from hold by Stifel, which warned an “unfavourable alignment” of factors this year means there is no justification for its premium valuation.
Shares in Ericsson fall as much as 4.2% after the telecom equipment maker warned that market uncertainties would prevail in 2024, with clients outside of China still cautious on spending. Taking usual seasonality into account, that means implied 1Q profit indications are much lower than what consensus estimates have factored in, according to analysts.
Shares in Swatch drop as much as 3.5% after the Swiss watch company’s full-year 2023 results fell short of expectations. Analysts flagged a rise in investments and a strong currency as denting earnings, while the lower-than-anticipated dividend increase also weighed.
Shares in Logitech drop as much as 7.8% after the Swiss maker of computer accessories reported results. A boost to guidance is positive, but was widely expected, while the shares had a strong run ahead of the results, up about 34% in the three months through Monday’s close.
Shares in Topdanmark slump as much as 6.5% after reporting a drop in annual profit. Analysts flag the cost of claims was much higher than expected and that markets have set a high bar for the insurer in 2024.
Shares in Compass Group slip as much as 2.5% after HSBC downgraded the caterer to hold, saying there is better value elsewhere.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, led by Hong Kong, on news that Chinese authorities are considering a rescue package to stem an extended market slump. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, with all sub-sectors gaining except utilities. A gauge of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong jumped 2%, while the onshore CSI 300 Index briefly erased losses after Bloomberg reported that policymakers are seeking to mobilize $278 billion as part of a stabilization fund to buy onshore shares. That came after Premier Li Qiang called for “forceful” steps to support the market.

“The selloff has reached irrational levels due to a crisis of confidence,” said Vey-Sern Ling, an analyst at Union Bancaire Privee. “A rescue package may be insufficient on its own to prop up the market in terms of value injected, but will certainly help dispel the idea that the government doesn’t care.”

Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied with Hong Kong boosted by reports that China was mulling an equity market rescue package which could be announced as soon as this week, while tech names were also helped after China’s gaming regulator took down draft rules for controlling spending on video games from its website. Conversely, the mainland lagged as the initial support from the news of a potential equity market rescue waned given that potential support measures remain speculation and more stimulus will likely be needed to revive the property sector.
Australia’s ASX 200 was led higher by financials, tech and defensives, while stocks also shrugged off mixed business surveys.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended on gains after the BoJ maintained its ultra-easy policy, as widely expected, which briefly lifted the index to just shy of the 37,000 level where it then hit resistance and eventually wiped out all its earlier spoils.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The yen is off its best levels, having rallied during the course of the BOJ press conference where Governor Ueda made a few hawkish hints. USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 148 after weakening to as low as 146.99. Pair earlier rose as much as 0.3% when the BOJ kept its short-term rate at minus 0.1% and retained its current yield-curve control parameters Fast-money funds sold spot before and during Ueda’s press conference as JGB futures fell on the prospect of possible tighter policy, according to Asia-based FX traders

“The change in tone from Ueda is apparent, and keeps the April meeting live,” said Charu Chanana, head of FX strategy for Saxo Capital Markets, Still, the “yen will likely struggle to hold on to these gains in the near-term given that US yields are likely to remain volatile as the markets start to price in a Trump presidency and US economic data remains robust”

In rates, treasuries fall, with US 10-year yields rising 2bps to 4.13%. Bunds and gilts also decline. Treasuries remained cheaper by 1bp to 3bp across the curve following losses during Asia session, when futures were pressured as JGBs fell; the catalyst was BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments that certainty in the outlook is rising gradually and he’ll consider ending negative rates if the bank’s inflation goal comes into view. The US 10-year yield trades near session highs at around 4.13% with gilts lagging by 2bp in the sector and bunds slightly outperforming; Treasury curves are slightly steeper, most spreads within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels. UK gilts underperform in European bond markets. US session includes a $60BN 2-year note auction, first of three coupon sales this week (the remainder are a $61b 5-year and $41b 7-year Wednesday and Thursday). The When Issued on the 2-year yield at around 4.37% is ~6bp cheaper than result of December’s, which stopped through by 0.7bp.

In commodities, oil prices are in the red; WTI falls 0.6% to trade near $74.30. Spot gold rises 0.3%. Bitcoin falls 1.8% to ~$39,000.

To the day ahead now, and data releases in the US include the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for January, whilst in the Euro Area, we’ll get the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey and the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for January. Otherwise, earnings releases include Netflix, General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, and Lockheed Martin.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,881.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 471.51
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31%
Euro little changed at $1.0891
MXAP up 0.4% to 164.72
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 498.27
Nikkei little changed at 36,517.57
Topix down 0.1% to 2,542.07
Hang Seng Index up 2.6% to 15,353.98
Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 2,770.98
Sensex down 1.7% to 70,239.02
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,514.94
Kospi up 0.6% to 2,478.61
Brent Futures down 0.5% to $79.68/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,029.92
US Dollar Index down 0.11% to 103.22

Top Overnight News

BOJ left policy unchanged, as expected, but signaled a growing confidence that inflation conditions were continuing to move in a direction supportive of ending negative rates. RTRS
China’s government is looking to mobilize ~$275B worth of funds to bolster its stock market as officials grow more anxious about slumping prices. Also, Chinese Premier Li came out Monday and called for the gov’t to take additional steps to bolster the country’s beleaguered stock market. BBG
China’s gaming regulator has removed from its website the controversial draft rules that crushed the sector several weeks ago, an action that caused industry stocks to spike. Nikkei
ECB published its latest bank lending survey and revealed a further tightening of lending standards while demand for loans continued to fall (albeit at a slightly reduced rate). ECB   
The Israeli military suffered its deadliest day of the Gaza ground invasion on Monday, with 24 soldiers killed in the territory, 21 of them in a single blast. The military announced the soldiers’ deaths early Tuesday. Most of the soldiers were inside two two-story buildings that collapsed Monday afternoon, in a blast apparently involving explosives placed by Israel’s own military to level the buildings. NYT
The United States and Britain carried out large-scale military strikes on Monday against eight sites in Yemen controlled by Houthi militants, according to the two countries. The strikes signaled that the Biden administration intends to wage a sustained and, at least for now, open-ended campaign against the Iran-backed group that has disrupted traffic in vital international sea lanes. NYT
A top US regulator has pushed back at banks’ claims that stricter capital rules will increase borrowing costs, saying the lenders could always cut dividends and buybacks instead. The comments from Michael Hsu, acting director of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, are the latest shot across the bow to banks, which have complained for months about regulators’ plans for stricter rules under the so-called Basel III endgame framework. FT
Bill Gross has some advice for the Federal Reserve: stop winding down its balance sheet now, and start cutting interest rates in coming months to avoid recession. BBG
Sanofi agreed to buy the US biotech Inhibrx Inc. for as much as $2.2 billion, giving the French drugmaker a potential therapy for a genetic disorder that affects the lungs and liver.
The acquisition is the latest in a string of small- and mid-sized deals as Sanofi looks to double down on innovative medicines and reduce its reliance on the blockbuster asthma medicine Dupixent. BBG
Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to “amplify” ties with Moscow during a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, as the two sides continue to deepen relations. The Chinese leader said the “robust resilience” of their cooperation was demonstrated by bilateral trade hitting its annual goal of $200 billion last month, according to the state-run China Central Television. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly gained after the fresh record levels on Wall St but with gains capped ahead of risk events, while the region also digested the BoJ policy decision and reports of a potential Chinese equity market rescue package. ASX 200 was led higher by financials, tech and defensives, while stocks also shrugged off mixed business surveys. Nikkei 225 extended on gains after the BoJ maintained its ultra-easy policy, as widely expected, which briefly lifted the index to just shy of the 37,000 level where it then hit resistance and eventually wiped out all its earlier spoils. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied with Hong Kong boosted by reports that China was mulling an equity market rescue package which could be announced as soon as this week, while tech names were also helped after China’s gaming regulator took down draft rules for controlling spending on video games from its website. Conversely, the mainland lagged as the initial support from the news of a potential equity market rescue waned given that potential support measures remain speculation and more stimulus will likely be needed to revive the property sector.

Top Asian News

China is to reportedly expand stock selling curbs to insurers, according to Bloomberg
China is said to consider an equity market rescue package backed by USD 278bln, according to Bloomberg sources.
BoJ kept its policy settings unchanged, as expected, with rates at -0.10% and QQE with YCC to flexibly target 10yr JGB yields at around 0%, while it maintained the 1% upper bound reference rate for market operations. BoJ made no change to its forward guidance as it reiterated that it will continue with QQE with YCC for as long as needed and won’t hesitate to take additional easing steps if needed. BoJ also noted that inflation expectations are gradually heightening and inflation will likely gradually accelerate towards the BoJ target through to the end of the projected period. Furthermore, the BoJ cut the Fiscal 2023 Real GDP median forecast to 1.8% from 2.0% but raised the Fiscal 2024 Real GDP median view to 1.2% from 1.0%, while it cut its Fiscal 2024 Core CPI median forecast to 2.4% from 2.8% but raised the Fiscal 2025 Core CPI median view to 1.8% from 1.7% in the latest Outlook Report.
BoJ Governor Ueda says that Japan’s economy is to gradually pick up in the coming months; says the likelihood of achieving 2% inflation is rising gradually; must carefully watch financial and FX moves alongside the impact on the economy and prices. Full press conference can be found here.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says monetary policy falls under the BoJ’s jurisdiction, no comment on the government’s view of the BoJ decision.
PBoC leaders will hold a press conference on Wednesday at 07:00GMT/02:00EST to introduce the implementation of the CEWC decisions and financial support for the real economy, according to reports

European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%), started the session on a firmer footing, though dipped at the open and continued to edge into negative territory throughout the European morning; APAC bourses were mostly firmer at the handover, focus on BoJ & Chinese stimulus reports. European sectors are similarly pressured overall; though, Basic Resources tops the pile helped by higher base metals prices following Chinese stimulus optimism. US equity futures are on a mixed footing, with futures (bar the RTY) oscillating on either side of the unchanged mark with US specific newsflow light into key earnings and New Hampshire tonight; the Russell (+0.7%) continues yesterday’s outperformance.

Top European News

UK train drivers called off extra walkouts as the threat of an anti-strike law was dropped, according to FT.
ECB Bank Lending Survey: Credit standards tightened in Q4 for firms and households; further tightening expected in Q1. Demand for loans by firms and households continued to decrease substantially, albeit less steeply than in the previous quarter. Banks expect a small net increase in demand for loans to firms and for housing loans in the first quarter of 2024. Bank lending conditions tightened more in real estate and construction than in other sectors. Across loan categories, the decline in demand was driven by the general level of interest rates. Moreover, lower fixed investment dampened firms’ demand for loans, while subdued consumer confidence and housing market prospects reduced demand from households for loans.

FX

A softer morning for the broader Dollar largely as a function of JPY price action following the BoJ press conference; DXY trades towards the bottom of a 102.98-103.39 range after eclipsing yesterday’s high (103.37).
JPY is the marked G10 outperformer as BoJ Governor Ueda delivered a hawkish-leaning press conference after the central bank maintained policy settings across the board whilst the latest Outlook Report also provided very little to catch markets off guard.
EUR benefits slightly from the softer Dollar but gains capped by the firmer JPY; EUR/USD trades around the middle of a 1.0877-1.0915 range.
Antipodeans hold an upward bias following overnight gains in the Yuan coupled with upside in commodities as sentiment in APAC hours was lifted by reports China is said to consider an equity market rescue package.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1117 vs exp. 7.2033 (prev. 7.1105).

Fixed Income

USTs are bear-steepening, though only modestly so, after BoJ’s Ueda press conference and with the Fed in Blackout; docket has a US 2yr outing (USD 60bln due) and Philadelphia/Richmond Fed surveys.
JGBs were choppy on the initial BoJ announcement, where settings/guidance was maintained. Thereafter, there was some marked bearish action during Ueda’s press conference which was hawkish overall.
Bunds are pressured in tandem with JGBs, German Green supply passed without note. Unreactive to the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey, where credit standards tightened in Q4 and are expected to continue to do so in Q1.
Netherlands sells EUR 1.72bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 0.00% 2038 DSL: average yield 2.759% (prev. 2.992%)
Orders for the UK 2054 Gilt exceed GBP 70bln (prev. GBP 60bln); price guidance set at 1.75bps over 2053 Gilt (prev. 1.75-2.25bps), via Reuters citing bookrunner.

Commodities

WTI and Brent hold a mild downward bias after crude contracts settled higher by USD 1.50/bbl apiece yesterday, with today’s price action somewhat muted; Brent holds below the USD 80/bbl level.
Precious metals see a modest upward tilt amid the softer Dollar, but price action is capped ahead of this week’s key risk events including US Q4 GDP, Dec PCE & ECB. XAU sits within recent ranges in a USD 2,019.38-2,037.79/oz band.
Base metals are firmer across the board as a function of the weak Greenback coupled with overnight headlines that China is said to consider an equity market rescue package backed by USD 278bln – in turn lifting sentiment in China.
German Economy Minister Habeck says we have started a trend reversal in offshore wind and demand is high
Norway’s prelim December oil production 1.847mln BPD (prev. 1.779mln BPD in Nov); December gas production 11.75bcm (prev. 10.90bcm in Nov)
Dubai set the official crude differential for April at parity to DME Oman

Geopolitics

Israel proposed a two-month fighting pause in Gaza for the release of all hostages, according to Axios.
US and British forces conducted a fresh round of strikes in Yemen against Houthi targets, while the US, UK, Bahrain and other nations confirmed in a joint statement that an additional round of proportionate and necessary strikes was conducted against 8 Houthi targets in Yemen, according to Reuters.
White House said President Biden and UK PM Sunak discussed in a call the ongoing Iranian-backed Houthi attacks against merchant and naval vessels in the Red Sea and discussed securing the release of hostages held by Hamas.

US Event Calendar

08:30: Jan. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, prior 6.3
10:00: Jan. Richmond Fed Business Conditions, prior 0
10:00: Jan. Richmond Fed Index, est. -6, prior -11

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As those of us in Europe brace ourselves for a second storm in three days today, markets are sailing in calm waters at the moment, and put in another decent performance yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.22%) hitting an all-time high for a second consecutive session and Europe catching up a bit of the recent underperformance. Bonds also rallied and in addition EUR IG spreads reached their tightest level in 21 months, just as Brent crude oil prices closed at a new YTD high, at $80.06/bbl.

The chink in the armour at the moment is rate expectations as the last 10-day trend of Q1 rate cut expectations being priced out continued. Indeed, futures are now pricing in just a 42% chance of a Fed rate cut by March (49% Friday), which is a big shift from the end of 2023, when a cut by March was fully priced in. Even intraday on January 12th there was an 88% probability.

Central banks have been in the spotlight overnight too, as the Bank of Japan kept its ultra-dovish policy unchanged as widely expected. They revised down their core inflation forecast for the next fiscal year (staring this April) to 2.4% from 2.8% in October but marginally increased the core CPI estimate to 1.8% from 1.7%. Following the decision, yields on 10-year JGBs (-0.7bps) inched lower, trading at 0.65% with the Japanese yen strengthening +0.12% to trade at 147.93 against the dollar. The Nikkei has dipped (-0.1%) from earlier highs as the meeting was seen as a slightly hawkish one.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Hang Seng is rebounding (+2.8%) after a Bloomberg report revealed that Chinese authorities are considering mobilizing a package of measures worth 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion) to stabilise its stock markets. For context even with the rally so far this morning the index is still -9.8% YTD after just three weeks of trading. Mainland Chinese stocks have swung about a bit but are broadly flat as I type. US futures are also little changed at the moment.

That follows on from the S&P 500 (+0.22%) last night posting a third consecutive gain for the first time in 2024. Industrials (+0.74%) and financials (+0.43%) led the gains. Moreover, small-cap stocks did very well, and the Russell 2000 surged by +2.01%, whereas the Magnificent 7 posted a slight loss (-0.22%). However, the Russell 2000 is still down -2.16% YTD, in contrast to a +3.44% gain for the Magnificent 7. Yesterday’s rally was evident in Europe too, where the STOXX 600 (+0.77%) had its best start to the week since August, with the STOXX Technology Index posting a +2.08% gain.

That optimism extended to bonds, where yields on 10yr Treasuries came down by -1.8bps to 4.11%. The muted moves came in the absence of any obvious catalysts, and we won’t hear from Fed officials now until after next week’s decision. Overnight they are another -1.5bps lower. Even as investors dialled back the chance of a Fed March cut, it was clear that they still expect a fairly rapid pace over the year as a whole, with 133bps of cuts still priced in by the December meeting. Meanwhile in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-5.1bps), OATs (-4.7bps) and BTPs (-4.1bps) all moved lower as well.

In the commodity space, Brent (+1.91% to $80.06/bbl) and WTI (+2.42% to $75.19/bbl) crude oil prices both rose to YTD highs, supported by solid risk sentiment as well as supply concerns. The latter included ongoing tensions in the Red Sea and an outage at a gas-condensate export terminal on Russia’s Baltic coast after a Ukrainian drone strike over the weekend.

Looking forward to today, the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for Q4 2023 will give the latest colour on banking conditions in the euro area. In the last round of the survey banks expected a sizeable improvement during Q4, but their expectations had proved too optimistic over the previous few quarters. Still, with nascent signs that bank lending flows have bottomed out, we’ll be watching if the BLS signals that the peak drag from the ECB’s tightening is now behind us.

Later on in the day, attention will be back on US politics, since the New Hampshire primary is taking place, which is the second contest on the Republican side after last week’s Iowa Caucus. Right now, the polling average on FiveThirtyEight puts former President Trump in the lead with 52.3%, with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley on 36.7%. And those are the only two major candidates still in the race, since Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped out on Sunday and endorsed Trump. Bear in mind as well that in the era of modern primaries, no Republican has ever lost the nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire, so if Trump is able to win again today, it would take a historically unprecedented collapse for him to lose the nomination from here. Results should become available after polls start closing at 7pm ET.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, although we did get the Conference Board’s Leading Index for December. That posted a -0.1% decline (vs. -0.3% expected), but it was actually the smallest move lower since March 2022, which speaks to the growing signs that the outlook is improving.

To the day ahead now, and data releases in the US include the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for January, whilst in the Euro Area, we’ll get the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey and the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for January. Otherwise, earnings releases include Netflix, General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, and Lockheed Martin.