2023 Was The Worst Year On Record For Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales fell 1.0% MoM in December, worse than the +0.3% expected, leaving sales down

Source: Bloomberg

Total Existing Home Sales in December 2023 were 3.78mm – the lowest SAAR since 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

But, on an annual basis, this is the worst year on record (back to at least 1995)..

Source: Bloomberg

“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.”

Existing Home Sales were flat in the Northeast, lower in the MidWest and the South, and up marginally in the West (driven by single-family-home sales as condo sales declined)…

Source: Bloomberg

Last month, the number of previously owned homes for sale dropped to 1 million, the lowest since March.

At the current sales pace, selling all the properties on the market would take 3.2 months.

Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight resale market.

That lack of inventory is helping to keep prices elevated.

The median selling price climbed 4.4% to $382,600 in December from a year ago, reflecting increases in all four regions. Prices hit a record of $389,800 in 2023.

Source: Bloomberg

But, with mortgage rates having tumbled (and given the lagged responses), are sales about to start rising again?

Source: Bloomberg

So The Fed managed to kill sales, collapse inventories, send home prices higher, destroying affordability… and now what is going to happen?