Dis-Inflation & Disappointment For Philly Fed Survey In January

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region continued to decline in January (for the 18th month of the last 20). The headline Philly Fed survey printed -10.6 (worse than the -6.5 expected) and apart from the insane outlier spike in August, this indicator screams recession…

Source: Bloomberg

More worrying is the fact that hope appears to be dwindling fast as the six-month-forecast for the survey plunged back into contraction (from +12.6 to -4.00)…

Source: Bloomberg

Philly Fed’s demise is consistent with the collapse of hope as ‘soft’ survey data has slumped in the last month, back to its weakest since July (as ‘hard’ data improves relative to expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side for the doves, the dis-inflationary trend remains in tact as priced paid and prices received both plunged in January. However, we highlight the fact that Philly businesses expect price pressure to return in the next six months…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the ‘bad news’ in this report should buoy stocks and bonds (lower inflation and lower growth enables sooner and faster cuts)… But will it.