Continuing Jobless Claims Hover Near Two-Year Highs At End 2023

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose from 206k to 218k in the week ending 12/23 (just off 2023 lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Calfornia (estimated), Missouri, and NewJersey saw  the biggest weekly jump in initial claims while Texas (estimated) saw the biggest decline…

Continuing claims rose modestly from 1.861 million Americans to 1.875 million (still below the 1.9mm Maginot Line, but basically at the highest in two years)…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, Goldman believes that persistent seasonal distortions more than explain the 218k increase in continuing claims since early September, and expect those distortions to boost the level of continuing claims by an additional 100k by March.

However, if the massive loosening of financial conditions is any signal, continuing claims are about to plunge (4 week lagged continuing claims track US FCI)…

Source: Bloomberg

Now, what will that do to wage inflation?