US Consumer Confidence Rose In November, But ‘Family Financial Conditions’ Worsened

US Consumer Confidence rebounded strongly in November according to the latest survey from The Conference Board, beating expectations across the board.

Consumer confidence rose to 110.7 (estimate 104.5) in December from revised 101 in November

Present situation rose to 148.5 from revised 136.5 in November

Expectations index rose to 85.6 from revised 77.4 in November

Source: Bloomberg

“December’s increase in consumer confidence reflected more positive ratings of current business conditions and job availability, as well as less pessimistic views of business, labor market, and personal income prospects over the next six months,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

“While December’s renewed optimism was seen across all ages and household income levels, the gains were largest among householders aged 35-54 and households with income levels of $125,000 and above.

December’s write-in responses revealed the top issue affecting consumers remains rising prices in general, while politics, interest rates, and global conflicts all saw downticks as top concerns.”

Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations continued to recede, and now stands at 5.6% (lowest since Nov 2020), as UMich’s outlier spike has reverted…

Source: Bloomberg

The labor market indicators are trending worse – now at the weakest since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

When asked to assess their current family financial conditions (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index), the proportion reporting “good” ticked down while those saying “bad” rose slightly.

Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months abated in December to the lowest level seen this year…

…though two-thirds still perceive a downturn is possible in 2024.

This suggests consumers’ view of their current finances may paint a more tempered picture than the perception that overall conditions are better than a month ago.”