Initial Jobless Claims Tumble Near 2023 Lows, But…

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to 202k last week (lower than all expectations) – practically 2023 lows – while the NSA claims declined from its seasonal spike…

Source: Bloomberg

In a major reversal from the prior week, New York and Pennsylvania saw the largest declines in initial claims…

The week prior saw New York Claims surge…

New York Initial Claims have been a little noisy…

Continuing Claims rose modestly on the week to 1.876mm Americans, but remains below the key 1.9mm Maginot Line once again…

Source: Bloomberg

However, as the chart shows, continuing claims remain near two-year highs.

The Fed’s ‘mission accomplished’ with barely a blip in initial claims is unprecedented – what happens next?